National Assessment of Climate-Derived Malaria Seasonality in Nigeria Using Daily AgERA5 Climate Data

Authors

Zubairul Islam, Yakubu Joel Cherima, Usman Muhammad Ibrahim, Fauwzia Sanusi, Charles Adeiza Umar, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Kebiru Umoru

Abstract

Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions that regulate mosquito survival, breeding habitat persistence, and parasite development. However, most
large-scale malaria studies rely on monthly climate averages that may overlook short-term environmental variability relevant to transmission dynamics. This study aimed to characterize climate-derived malaria transmission windows and seasonality patterns across Nigeria via daily AgERA5 climatic observations for 2025. Daily rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, dew point temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and cloud cover data were processed for 774 local government areas (LGAs). Climate-suitable malaria days were identified via biologically informed thresholds that incorporate thermal suitability, atmospheric moisture, rainfall persistence, and humidity persistence. Season onset, cessation, duration, and fortnightly transmission dynamics were subsequently quantified and mapped. The results revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity in climatic suitability, with annual climate-suitable malaria days averaging 157.7 days across LGAs. Near-perennial climatic suitability (>180 days) occurred in 35.3% of LGAs and was concentrated in the humid coastal and Niger Delta regions, whereas northern Sahelian environments presented short and highly seasonal transmission windows. Climatic suitability expanded progressively during the wet season, reaching a national maximum during Fortnight 18, when 771 of 774 LGAs experienced favorable transmission conditions. These findings demonstrate that daily climate observations provide a robust framework for identifying malaria transmission windows and supporting climate-informed surveillance, preparedness, and intervention planning across environmentally diverse regions of Nigeria.

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