Urban Growth and Malaria Dynamics in Abuja, Nigeria: Disentangling Climatic and Demographic Drivers.

Malaria remains a major public health concern in Nigeria, this study analyses the temporal trend of malaria incidence in Abuja from 2014 to 2024, assesses the trend of malaria parasite suitable days from 1979 to 2024, examines population growth trends, and evaluates the relationship between malaria, climatic suitability, and population expansion. Daily climate data from ERA5 (and CFS reanalysis datasets were utilized, incorporating temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and specific humidity as key environmental factors. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to assess long-term malaria and climate trends, while ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis was used to evaluate statistical relationships. Results indicate a statistically significant increasing trend in malaria incidence (p < 0.001), coinciding with rapid urban population growth. However, malaria parasite suitable days showed a significant decline (p < 0.001), suggesting climate-induced changes in vector ecology. Regression analysis revealed a strong positive association between malaria incidence and population growth (p = 0.043, R² = 0.38), while the relationship between malaria and climatic suitability was weak (p = 0.260, R² = 0.138). These findings highlight the growing urban malaria burden, driven primarily by population expansion rather than climate change. The study underscores the need for integrated malaria control strategies, combining vector management, urban health planning, and climate adaptation measures to mitigate future risks in Abuja.