Operational Silence and Climate-Driven Hidden Severe Malaria Burden in Sokoto State, Nigeria.
Abstract
Malaria remains a major public health challenge in northern Nigeria, where climatic suitability, weak healthcare accessibility, and operational surveillance limitations may contribute to the severe malaria burden. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of severe malaria in Sokoto State, Nigeria, from 2014 to 2024 and estimated climate-driven hidden transmission zones via integrated geospatial modeling. The monthly severe malaria surveillance records for 23 LGAs were combined with climate variables, the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR), the population distribution, travel-time accessibility, and settlement indicators. Temporal trends were evaluated via Sen’s slope and Mann–Kendall statistics, and a climate suitability index and accessibility-con-strained hidden burden framework were developed to estimate the potential underdetected severe malaria burden. A total of 184,429 reported severe malaria cases were recorded from 2014–2024, with the highest annual burden observed in 2015 (22,404 cases). October presented the highest mean monthly burden (117.89 cases), whereas Sabon Birni recorded the highest cumulative severe malaria burden (28,943 cases). Climate-driven burden analysis identified Rabah (hidden burden ratio = 11.04), Kebbe (7.31), and Dange-Shuni (3.03) as major hidden burden hotspots
characterized by high climate suitability and poor healthcare accessibility. Ward-level analysis further revealed highly localized operational silence zones within remote settlements. The findings demonstrate that integrating climate suitability with healthcare accessibility provides an effective framework for identifying hidden severe malaria transmission landscapes and operational surveillance gaps within semiarid environments.
Similar Articles
- Uchenna Stephen Nwokenna, Yakubu Joel Cherima, Rejoice Kaka Hassan, Ugo Uwadiako Enebeli, Ebelechukwu Lawrence Enebeli, Fiyidi Mikailu, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Zubairul Islam, Kebiru Umoru, Eziyi Iche Kalu, Catchment-Level Spatial Inequities in Antenatal Care Utilization and Malaria Prevention in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. , Hensard Journal of Health Governance and Digital Transformation: Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026): Volume 1, Issue 1 : Malaria in Pregnancy – Governance, Digital Innovation, and Health System Response
- Zubairul Islam, Yakubu Joel Cherima, Ugo Uwadiako Enebeli, Ebelechukwu Lawrence Enebeli, Rejoice Kaka Hassan, Fiyidi Mikailu, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Uchenna Stephen Nwokenna, Kebiru Umoru, Eziyi Iche Kalu, Predicting IPTp3 Coverage at Health-Facility Level Using XGBoost Machine Learning and Spatial Diagnostics in Kebbi State, Nigeria. , Hensard Journal of Health Governance and Digital Transformation: Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026): Volume 1, Issue 1 : Malaria in Pregnancy – Governance, Digital Innovation, and Health System Response
- Yakubu Joel Cherima, Kebiru Umoru, Uchenna Stephen Nwokenna, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Fiyidi Mikailu, Rejoice Kaka Hassan, Ebelechukwu Lawrence Enebeli, Ugo Uwadiako Enebeli, Zubairul Islam, Eziyi Iche Kalu, Geospatial analysis of Malaria-in-Pregnancy Service Gaps using Routine Health Data in Cross River State, Nigeria. , Hensard Journal of Health Governance and Digital Transformation: Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026): Volume 1, Issue 1 : Malaria in Pregnancy – Governance, Digital Innovation, and Health System Response
Previous
11-13 of 13
You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.
Most read articles by the same author(s)
- Yakubu Joel Cherima, Charles Adeiza Umar, Uchenna Stephen Nwokenna, Usman Muhammad Ibrahim, Kebiru Umoru, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Residual Malaria Burden and Strategic Targeting of Intermittent Preventive Treatment for Schoolchildren in Oyo State, Nigeria: An Integrated Geospatial Decision-Support Framework , Hensard Journal of Health Governance and Digital Transformation: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2026): Volume 1, Number 2 (2026)
- Yakubu Joel Cherima, Charles Adeiza Umar, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Usman Muhammad Ibrahim, Uchenna Stephen Nwokenna, Fauwzia Sanusi, Odira Irene Okoye, Co-Occurrence of Hidden Severe Malaria Burden and Zero-Dose Childhood Vulnerability Across Kano State, Nigeria , Hensard Journal of Health Governance and Digital Transformation: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2026): Volume 1, Number 2 (2026)
- Uchenna Stephen Nwokenna, Yakubu Joel Cherima, Usman Muhammad Ibrahim, Odira Irene Okoye, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Charles Adeiza Umar, Finding Missing Children: A Ward-Level Geospatial Framework for Targeting Malaria Chemoprevention and Child Survival Interventions in Sokoto State, Nigeria , Hensard Journal of Health Governance and Digital Transformation: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2026): Volume 1, Number 2 (2026)
- Yakubu Joel Cherima, Usman Muhammad Ibrahim, Zubairul Islam, Kebiru Umoru, Onigah Peter Oko, Chioma Victoria Udumah, Charles Adeiza Umar, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Geospatial Prioritization and Cost-Effective Delivery of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention for Under-Five Children in Sokoto State, Nigeria , Hensard Journal of Health Governance and Digital Transformation: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2026): Volume 1, Number 2 (2026)
- Usman Muhammad Ibrahim, Yakubu Joel Cherima, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Charles Adeiza Umar, Uchenna Stephen Nwokenna, Fauwzia Sanusi, Odira Irene Okoye, Identifying Hidden Severe Malaria Burden, Treatment Gaps, and Priority Investment Areas in Kano State, Nigeria, via an Accessibility-Adjusted Geospatial Index , Hensard Journal of Health Governance and Digital Transformation: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2026): Volume 1, Number 2 (2026)
- Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Yakubu Joel Cherima, Usman Muhammad Ibrahim, Odira Irene Okoye, Uchenna Stephen Nwokenna, Charles Adeiza, Estimating the True Population at Risk: Under-Five Malaria Mortality, Denominator Uncertainty, and Child Survival Investment Priorities in Zamfara State, Nigeria , Hensard Journal of Health Governance and Digital Transformation: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2026): Volume 1, Number 2 (2026)
- Zubairul Islam, Yakubu Joel Cherima, Usman Muhammad Ibrahim, Fauwzia Sanusi, Charles Adeiza Umar, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Kebiru Umoru, National Assessment of Climate-Derived Malaria Seasonality in Nigeria Using Daily AgERA5 Climate Data , Hensard Journal of Health Governance and Digital Transformation: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2026): Volume 1, Number 2 (2026)
