A World Bank Data-Driven Analysis of Income, Investment, and Sectoral Change in ECOWAS Economies (2000–2024)

Authors

Ebelechukwu Lawrence Enebeli, Ugo Uwadiako Enebeli, Yonwul Jacqueline Dakyen, Yakubu Joel Cherima, Rejoice Kaka Hassan, Fiyidi Mikailu, Zubairul Islam, Evelyn Erdoo Orya

Abstract

This study examines long-term economic development and structural transformation across twelve West African economies, Benin, Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo over the period 2000–2024 using har-monized World Bank indicators. The analysis combines income dynamics, growth performance, macroeconomic stability, investment, trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), and sectoral value-added shares to provide a comprehensive, comparative assessment of development trajecto-ries in the region. Results reveal persistent income divergence and slow convergence. Real GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) remains highest in Cabo Verde (long-run mean ≈ US$3,200), fol-lowed by Nigeria (≈ US$2,190) and Ghana (≈ US$1,560), while Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and Togo consistently remain below US$750. Growth outcomes are heterogeneous: Ghana records the high-est mean growth rate (≈5.6%), whereas Benin and Senegal combine moderate growth with the lowest volatility, indicating stronger macroeconomic resilience. In contrast, Liberia and Cabo Verde experience extreme fluctuations, with growth ranging from contractions below −20% to ex-pansions exceeding 25%. Macroeconomic conditions further differentiate countries. Inflation re-mains low and stable in Senegal, Cabo Verde, Benin, and Togo (generally <3% in 2024), while Nigeria, Ghana, and Sierra Leone exhibit sustained price instability, exceeding 20–30% in the latest year. Investment intensity varies widely; countries such as Senegal, Benin, Guinea, and The Gambia sustain gross capital formation above 30% of GDP in 2024, yet relatively strong growth in Ghana despite low investment underscores the role of productivity and structural factors beyond capital accumulation. Sectoral results show pronounced structural transformation. Agriculture’s share declines sharply in Liberia (−42 percentage points) and Sierra Leone (−30 points), accom-panied by large expansions in services (+22 to +32 points), while industrialization remains uneven and concentrated in a few economies. The findings demonstrate that West African development paths are shaped by the interaction of growth stability, macroeconomic management, and sectoral reallocation rather than income growth alone.

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