Spatial Assessment and Energy Conversion Potential of Gas Flaring in Nige-ria’s South–South Region: Integrating Satellite Observations with Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis

Gas flaring remains a major environmental and energy-loss challenge in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon sector, particularly within the South–South geopolitical zone. This study develops a geospatial in-ventory of land-based flaring from 2017–2024 and quantifies its potential conversion into electric-ity generation. Using VIIRS Nightfire data integrated with administrative boundaries, 437 unique flare sites were mapped across five states (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, and Rivers). Annual and cumulative flared-gas volumes (BCM), detection reliability, and site persistence were com-puted at the Local Government Area (LGA) level through spatial joins and temporal aggregation. To assess energy recovery potential, a parametric Monte Carlo model was implemented, linking observed gas volumes to theoretical electricity output using net calorific value (NCV), thermal efficiency (η), and capacity factor (CF) distributions. The approach generated median and 95 % uncertainty bounds for both electrical energy (TWh) and indicative capacity (MW) across all LGAs and states. Results indicate that land-based flaring is spatially concentrated within a limited set of high-output LGAs, forming multi-node hotspots in Delta and Rivers States, with Bayelsa represent-ing a secondary but persistent pole. Delta recorded the highest cumulative flare volume (13.18 BCM) and electricity potential (58.1 TWh, 7.8 GW), followed by Rivers (9.87 BCM; 43.5 TWh, 5.9 GW) and Bayelsa (3.99 BCM; 17.6 TWh, 2.4 GW). Edo and Akwa Ibom contributed moderate but stable volumes (12.2 TWh and 4.3 TWh, respectively). Temporal trend analysis revealed largely stable or declining activity, with a significant 55 % reduction in Bayelsa (Sen’s slope = −0.054 BCM yr⁻¹, p = 0.009). Overall, the five-state zone contains an estimated 136 TWh yr⁻¹ of recover-able electricity equivalent to nearly one-third of Nigeria’s annual power demand. The findings highlight critical targets where flare-to-power could yield high environmental and economic re-turns, supporting national commitments toward zero routine flaring and energy-access.