The Multi-Decadal Land-Cover Transitions in Nigeria’s South–South Zone (2000–2022): Urban Expansion, Forest Restructuring, and Deltaic Ecosystem Dynamics

Rapid and spatially heterogeneous land-system change in Nigeria’s South–South (SS) zone threatens forests, wetlands, and coastal communities, yet consistent, wall-to-wall evidence spanning multiple decades is scarce. We map and quantify land-cover dynamics across Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, and Rivers from 2000 to 2022 using the ESA C3S/CCI Level-4 (300 m) product processed in Google Earth Engine. We combine  (i) state-level class composition, (ii) dominant transition flows for four intervals (2000–2005, 2005–2010, 2010–2015, 2015–2022), and (iii) cumulative gains, losses, and net change by class. Results reveal five robust patterns. (1) Urban expansion is widespread: cumulative urban gains exceed 1,240 km², led by Delta (+361 km²), Edo (+394 km²), Rivers (+315 km²), and Akwa Ibom (+126 km²). (2) Forest restructuring is state-specific: evergreen broadleaved forest increased in Delta (+364 km²) and Rivers (+327 km²), while Edo shifted from evergreen loss (−502 km²) to marked gains in open deciduous forest (+587 km²). (3) Mosaic classes contracted, with large declines in Delta and Rivers, indicating consolidation toward more homogeneous forest or cropland states. (4) Hydro-mangrove turnover—reciprocal water ↔ flooded saline tree cover—is strongest in Bayelsa and present in Rivers/Delta, consistent with deltaic processes and interannual hydroperiod variability. (5) Cropland changes are mixed, with Edo showing strong growth in herbaceous cropland while Akwa Ibom and Rivers record modest cropland declines. By pairing interval-resolved flow maps with end-to-end gains/losses, this study delivers a policy-ready baseline for the SS zone, clarifying where peri-urbanization, coastal hydrodynamics, and forest transitions co-occur. The framework supports targeted planning for coastal resilience, urban growth management, and forest/wetland restoration in one of West Africa’s most socioeconomically dynamic regions.